ABSTRACT
Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary disease affecting cattle and has a detrimental effect on the cattle industries in numerous countries in Africa, Europe and Asia. In 2021, LSD outbreaks have been reported in almost all of Thailand's provinces. Indeed, fitting LSD occurrences using mathematical models provide important knowledge in the realm of animal disease modeling. Thus, the objective of this study is to fit the pattern of daily new LSD cases and daily cumulative LSD cases in Thailand using mathematical models. The first- and second-order models in the forms of Lorentzian, Gaussian and Pearson-type VII models are used to fit daily new LSD cases whereas Richard's growth, Boltzmann sigmoidal and Power-law growth models are utilized to fit the curve of cumulative LSD cases. Based on the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and Akaike information criterion (AIC), results showed that both first and second orders of Pearson-type VII models and Richard's growth model (RGM) were fit to the data better than other models used in the present study. The obtained models and their parameters can be utilized to describe the LSD outbreak in Thailand. For disease preparedness purposes, we can use the first order of the Pearson-type VII model to estimate the time of maximum infected cases occurring when the growth rate of infected cases starts to slow down. Furthermore, the period when the growth rate changes at a slower rate, known as the inflection time, obtained from RGM allows us to anticipate when the pandemic has peaked and the situation has stabilized. This is the first study that utilizes mathematical methods to fit the LSD epidemics in Thailand. This study offers decision-makers and authorities with valuable information for establishing an effective disease control strategy.
ABSTRACT
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the tourism industry, especially in Thailand. Starting in April 2020, the Thai government banned international travel and all elephant tourist camps closed. A wide variety of management changes were implemented because of the lack of income from tourists. This study surveyed 30 camps that cared for >400 elephants in northern Thailand to obtain information on camp, elephant, and mahout management during the COVID-19 pandemic from April 2020 to 2022 compared to the year before. The survey consisted of questionnaires that interviewed elephant camp owners, managers, veterinarians, and mahouts, and captured information on changes in camp operations, including numbers of tourists, elephants and mahouts, elephant and mahout activities, and veterinary care. Results revealed significant changes in camp structure, elephant work activities and general care. Staff layoffs led to a decrease in the ratio of mahouts to elephants from 1:1 to 1:2. Elephant activities, distance walked, and amounts of food were reduced when compared to pre-COVID-19, while chain hours were increased due to reduced activity. Overall, the COVID-19 crisis altered elephant management significantly, potentially affecting animal welfare resulting from changes in nutrition, health, exercise, and numbers of mahouts. We hope to use these data to develop better management plans and guidelines for elephant camps in Thailand so they can cope with the current and potential imminent pandemics that result in decreased tourism income. A follow-up study will measure health and welfare markers in relation to COVID-19 induced changes to determine if any camps adapted management to still meet elephant health and welfare needs, and could serve as models for responding to future pandemics.